NWS reconsiders TAF reduction timing in Wyoming—and beyond 

Public Information Statement 26-09 proposed to terminate the TAFs on or about June 1. The NWS cited limited traffic volume as the reason for the measure despite Miley and Worland’s combined annual economic impact of over $9 million.

In a March 2 email to Aviation Weather Services team leader Kevin Stone, AOPA asked the NWS to withdraw the measure until the FAA and NWS have completed a joint Safety Risk Management process, a stakeholder outreach campaign, and an economic impact analysis, to clarify safety and operational concerns at the airports. After speaking with officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NWS on April 7, AOPA Northwest Mountain Regional Manager Brad Schuster reported that the NWS is planning to publish a follow-up to PIS 26-09.

The NWS acknowledged that the proposed change prompted significant public feedback on the shutdown of the two TAFs that is being taken seriously. Representatives also said that the weather service will work more closely with the FAA to make sure that advancements in forecasting technology are included in the FAA’s training and certification publications to make sure that pilots are able to adopt new weather forecasting technologies.

The email goes on to acknowledge that there are emerging weather analysis tools like the Localized Aviation MOS (Model Output Statistics) Program (LAMP)— a statistical forecast system—or Graphical Forecasts for Aviation, a visual depiction of weather conditions across the United States; however, those tools are not yet widely known or understood, and are not widely accepted by operators.

Additionally, feedback from some flight departments, charter companies, and insurance providers indicated that the use of LAMP or GFA is currently not accepted for go/no-go decision making, and in some cases, prohibited as tools for aviation-related decision making, according to the email.

Schuster argued that from an operational perspective, TAFs are generally considered “decision-authoritative” and that LAMP and GFA are “decision-supportive.” In some cases, operators may either have to avoid airports without TAFs, resort to possibly noncompliant workarounds, or accept unnecessarily elevated flight risks when proceeding with reduced perceived forecast certainty due to tool unfamiliarity.

The two Wyoming TAFs are particularly important to area pilots because of rapidly changing weather in the high-altitude terrain and its ensuing microclimates. Moreover, both affected airports are essential for emergency medical services. The Civil Air Patrol—which uses the airports as bases for searches—is required to use TAFs, and Worland also serves as a firefighting base for single-engine air tankers. For them, TAFs are essential for deployment during fire season especially as they are often joined by aircraft from the U.S. military.

Schuster concluded that “the proposed discontinuation of TAFs at Worland and Big Piney [Miley Memorial] would disproportionally affect rural mobility in the region. AOPA fully supports advancements in aviation weather-related technologies but rollouts of these new capabilities to the pilot community must be planned and executed in a safe, smart, and thoroughly coordinated manner.”

As a recent example of yet another NWS aviation weather tool, on March 30, NOAA announced the introduction of the Domestic Aviation Forecast System, which provides improved forecasts of in-flight icing and the prediction of turbulence.

AOPA will continue to monitor the situation and work diligently with all stakeholders to improve and maintain flight safety for all pilots.