Honeywell releases 2023 Global Business Aviation Outlook

The thirty-second annual outlook was presented prior to the start of the National Business Aviation Association's annual Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition in Las Vegas October 17 through 19.

The outlook forecasts a demand for 8,500 new business jets from 2024 to 2033 with an estimated value of $278 billion, in line with last year’s forecast, but markedly higher than Honeywell’s 2019 forecast that projected 7,600 new business jets from 2020 to 2029. “New users in business aviation have increased demand by 500 aircraft and 6 [percent] more flights over the next 10 years,” said Honeywell Aerospace Americas Aftermarket President Heath Patrick. “The industry in 2020 prepared for a steep drop in demand, but that didn’t happen, did it? In fact, it stayed strong and now we have to catch up,” said Honeywell Aerospace Strategy and Market Research Manager Javier Jimenez Serrano.

Honeywell noted in a press release that the COVID-19 pandemic drove a surge in first-time private aviation users, which peaked in 2022 but has declined since, with a 4-percent reduction in flight activity expected for 2023. For 2024, Honeywell reports that 93 percent of operators surveyed expect their flight activity to hold steady or increase.

“The fastest growing classes [of aircraft purchases] continue to be very high speed, ultralong-range aircraft,” said Serrano. These aircraft are expected to account for more than 37 percent of purchases—and 69 percent of all expenditures—of new business jets in the next five years. Small aircraft will account for 34 percent of the volume and 11 percent of expenditures. New jet deliveries and expenditures over the next decade are projected to grow at a 2-percent average annual rate, in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth.

Operators surveyed by Honeywell are also continuing the trend observed in previous years of showing an interest in reducing their carbon emissions. Thirty-nine percent said in the future they would use sustainable aviation fuels, and 28 percent said they would use carbon offsets for more “environmentally friendly” operations. Today, however, 31 percent of these operators say they are reducing their impact on the environment by making fewer private jet trips in favor of commercial flying, and 18 percent say they are flying at slower cruise speeds.

Honeywell’s global outlook is based on multiple sources, including interviews with over 100 nonfractional business jet operators representing a fleet of 206 business aircraft worldwide.