Honeywell predicts 4,100 new civil helos in 5 years
Forecasts increased purchases, utilization over 2019
In its twenty-second annual Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchase Outlook, released February 5, Honeywell forecast the delivery of 4,100 new civilian-use helicopters from 2020 to 2024, marginally higher than the five-year forecast issued in 2019.
Although deliveries are expected to be higher than 2019, purchase plans are lower—by less than a percentage point. “This year, we anticipate higher deliveries due to entry into service of new helicopter platforms,” said Heath Patrick, Honeywell Aerospace Americas Aftermarket president. “Despite the slight dip in purchase plans, we see several bright spots, including higher utilization rates. This means operators plan to use their aircraft more frequently over the next 12 months.”
The top three factors operators consider when choosing the make and model of a new rotorcraft are brand experience, aircraft performance, and cabin size, the survey found.
“Longer term, the outlook is supported by favorable exchange rates and higher oil prices,” said Gaetan Handfield, senior manager of marketing analysis for Honeywell Aerospace. “This will stimulate a replacement cycle.” Specifically, Handfield expects replacement of older, larger helicopters. “What the manufacturers have done is introduced the super-mediums that could replace heavy aircraft,” such as the Airbus H175, Bell 525, and Leonardo AW189.
In North America, average utilization was higher by about 12 percent during 2019 compared with 2018, and about 19 percent of survey respondents expect their helicopter fleet utilization to increase over the next 12 months. In the North America region—home to more than 40 percent of the world’s helicopter fleet—purchase plans have declined by six percentage points from 2019, with 12 percent of respondents saying they would either replace or expand their fleet with a new helicopter over the next five years. Nearly half of planned North American purchases were identified as light single-engine models, while roughly 32 percent will be intermediate and medium-twin product classes. Emergency medical services account for the largest share, about 38 percent, of planned purchases.
“Light singles are still most popular” in North America but are down 8 percent, Handfield said. The market there is “a bit lower but more cautious.” And not only was utilization up 12 percent in this region during 2019, “19 percent are telling us it’s going to be higher in 2020.”
Honeywell found the five-year used market to be down 4 percent this year, with North America and Europe the primary drivers. And Handfield has seen no fallout from the Boeing 737 Max 8 issue in the rotorcraft segment. “Helicopter OEMs are not reporting longer certification periods but business aircraft manufacturers have,” he said.
In Europe purchase plans are higher in this year’s survey compared with 2019 results. More than 18 percent of respondents plan to purchase a new helicopter over the next five years, compared with 15 percent a year ago. Utility and aerial work account for about 26 percent of planned purchases, followed by 23 percent for corporate/VIP, and 16 percent for EMS/search-and-rescue usage.
Latin America data for 2020 show significantly higher fleet replacement and growth expectations compared with 2019. Purchase plans are well above the global average of 14 percent, and increased by 20 percentage points from last year. This region had the highest rate of planned new aircraft purchases globally. Purchase plans in Brazil increased to 26 percent, a jump of 21 percentage points over 2019’s survey results.
“This is what’s saving worldwide [volume] overall,” Handfield said of the large increase in anticipated purchases from the Latin America region after low volume last year.
The lowest purchase rates, only 5 percent of respondents, are found in the Middle East and Africa. Purchase plans are 10 percentage points lower compared with 2019 survey results. In the Asia Pacific region, overall buying plans are down 6 percentage points compared with 2019. Although data are limited, new helicopter purchase plans also are lower in China, down about 7 percentage points compared with 2019 results; about 14 percent of operators responding would replace or add a helicopter during the next five years.
Honeywell said its outlook presents a snapshot of the helicopter market at a given point in time, reflecting current business and political environments. This year’s data comes from a survey of more than 1,000 chief pilots and flight department managers of companies operating 3,559 turbine and 282 piston helicopters worldwide. The survey excludes large fleet operators.
