Safe flights start on the ground

It is easy to cast judgement and play armchair quarterback, but most pilots don’t choose to launch into bad weather on purpose. It often comes down to a lack of understanding of the atmosphere. As instructors, it is critical we go beyond the meteorological knowledge the FAA requires.

These days there should be few weather surprises. Weather technology continues to improve. Still, according to the NTSB, weather is responsible for about 25 percent of all aviation accidents with most of the accidents fatal. I am confident we can reduce that accident rate even further.

Meteorology is a complex science. It is critical pilots know where to find data for flight planning and how to understand the weather data available on the ground and in the air. I asked a pilot the other day if they knew where the radar on their G1000 originated from. It was a mystery to them. They were shocked when I said it was a mosaic of 159 National Weather Service ground-based Nexrad radars. Yes, the same weather data broadcast meteorologists show on the local news. The data received by your avionics suffers from some limitations including resolution and time delay. Cockpit weather can be as much as 20 minutes old. If you’re flying at 160 knots and a storm is moving at 30 knots, you and the storm will be in different places within 10 minutes. This means the radar data is more strategic than tactical.

Proper weather avoidance begins on the ground. I often begin weather planning my flights five days out. I begin with the big picture and then refine the smaller details as the trip gets closer. A full weather brief is available on electronic flight bags like Garmin Pilot and ForeFlight Mobile. There is also plenty of information regarding severe weather, icing potential, and frontal positions online at aviationweather.gov. Radar apps offering high-resolution radar data like RadarScope are also beneficial when examining active weather when still on the ground. Make sure you are using a weather app that offers high resolution radar data and not what I call “blob-o-vision.” These consumer weather apps have data so smoothed to improve appearance on the map that data quality is compromised. 

I am a huge fan of reading your local National Weather Service forecast discussion. The discussion pulls the curtain back on what the local meteorologists are thinking about the forecast, variables that may impact the forecast, and their confidence in the forecast. Reading the discussion goes beyond reading the terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF). While we are on the subject of the TAF, how often have you wondered the difference between the TAF and a model output statistics (MOS) forecast. The TAF is created by meteorologists at the NWS office closest to the airport. MOS is computer model output without the intervention of a meteorologist. It is similar to the forecasts you see on your favorite weather apps: automated weather data. I prefer forecasts that have been produced with the help of experienced meteorologists. It is important to consider the weather along the entire route of flight, not just at your departure and destination airport.

One newer and often missed resource is online weather cameras. Cameras are everywhere and many of them are online and located at airports. These cameras provide some significant ground truth. Combine camera views with ASOS/AWOS reports and your situational awareness improves. Imagine being able to look at a camera located at an airport and visually determine the visibility and other weather conditions.

For the most advanced meteorology consumer, weather models are available on a variety of websites including pivotalweather.com. By utilizing high-resolution models like the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR), a pilot can have access to model driven “future radar.” Freezing levels can also be determined to help forecast icing potential. Model data is not a replacement for an official briefing, but it can certainly paint a better meteorological picture of future weather.

In some cases, pilots simply don’t know what they don’t know. Flight instructors serve a critical role in teaching good aeronautical decision making as well as offering pilots an opportunity to experience safe weather flying in a training environment. It is a disservice for an instrument-rated pilot to have their first encounter navigating around convective weather, flying in clouds, and landing in low visibility conditions without ever doing so with an instructor. I have always made it a point to do some real-world flights with students when the weather is safe, but less than perfect.

It does not always have to be clear and a million to have a safe flight. By maximizing the data we have available, knowing the limitations of the data, and having a thorough understanding of the atmosphere we can live to fly another day.

JP Dice is a veteran meteorologist, flight instructor, and corporate pilot flying Cessna Citations and Gulfstreams.