Is there anyone on the planet who can predict with accuracy the price of avgas at the pumps next week? What about the wind velocity at the local airport for Sunday’s flight?
Life is full of so many unpredictable variables. At the very least, we can prognosticate as best as we can based upon available data, professional opinion, and intuition so as to provide some kind of vision and direction. With all that in mind, what does the future hold for the thousands of potential airline pilots in training? Are all those airline pilot hopefuls just rolling the dice while praying that, magically, a job flying for an air carrier will materialize at the end of all that time, energy, and money preparing for a professional flying career?
There is one person in this business who has dedicated his life to the study of airline pilot hiring patterns, and that is Kit Darby.
Darby flew airplanes for United throughout his own career, but his passion was and in retirement continues to be the never-ending search for answers to the question: “What’s with the airlines and hiring?” For decades, he was one of the driving forces in the Future Airline Pilots Association, followed by his own enterprise, AIR, Inc. The mission of both was simply to provide the best resources available on a subscription basis to job seekers—from interviewing techniques to monthly snapshots of airline hiring to salary surveys.
His monthly magazine was full of helpful articles and in-depth airline profiles. He is considered the go-to guy for study and research of the airline flying profession as he continues to monitor the pulse of hiring from the Atlanta offices of KitDarby.com Aviation Consulting. There is nobody savvier than Darby, thanks to his extensive network of airline recruiters, executives, and FAA regulators.
Darby believes that the demand for new airline pilots through 2020 is based upon these factors: the age 65 retirement rule and a significant outflow of airline retirees; modest fleet growth; current pilot staffing ratios of about 13.5 pilots per aircraft at the major airlines; and the new rest rules. Those new rest rules alone will increase the pilot ranks at the big airlines by about 2 to 4 percent—and from 8 to 15 percent at the smaller carriers.
With regard to the 2010 law that requires all pilots flying for an FAR Part 121 airline to have an ATP certificate, Darby predicts that it will take three to five years for the system to adjust. “Long story short: there should be strong demand for pilots who meet the new higher minimums for at least that period of time, barring another recession.” Remember that this requirement takes effect in August.
Darby makes some very bold predictions. “I do not believe that there is a shortage of people who want to be pilots, although cost is becoming an increasingly important issue primarily due to the inability to finance this training. Government and/or airline support through low-cost or guaranteed loans seems increasingly likely. Perhaps something like the European ab initio pilot training programs may also be in the picture, but it will take time and sustained pilot demand leading to shortages at the airlines for those companies to accept this additional expense as a cost of doing business. I would never recommend that a young pilot wait for this type of assistance, which may take years to develop, if ever.” But, there is a precedent. In the 1960s, United Airlines recruited private pilots with only 250 hours of total time, hired those airmen, and took them right through their commercial pilot certificate.
“It is possible and the FAA leadership has hinted that, once the shortage is exacerbated—as it is predicted—the government will likely move toward the ICAO MPL (multi-crew pilot license) system, which is the perfect solution to our future problems,” Darby said (see “Time for a Change?” November 2011 Flight Training).
The MPL was born as the international solution to the same pilot shortage problem in the rest of the world. It is uncanny, however, that some active pilots are resisting the MPL direction even though they were trained in the military using a similar system. They were trained from the very start as military aviators and were routinely cut loose in a variety of aircraft, from large transports to fighters, with fewer than 300 hours of flight time. What has worked for the military—specifically, recruiting top candidates and training them with the objective of making them military aviators—is something both the airlines and pilot training organizations may need to adopt. Right now, we train pilots to be flight instructors in Cessna Skyhawks rather than professionals flying Boeing and Airbus equipment.
A contributing factor to the pilot shortage is the economic reality of those first years on the job. The pauper’s wages for new regional airline pilots are legendary. When a college graduate can walk right into a job paying $65,000 annually as a software engineer, it doesn’t take much to figure out where the attractive career path might lie. But, as Darby says, “The pay is good after you get by the apprenticeship years as a regional first officer. Even regional captains now have a potential to earn $120,000 annually, working about 15 days per month. The real beauty is in the flexibility the career offers. After the initial years are past and you gain some seniority, you determine what you fly, when you fly, where you fly, and when to have your vacation. To me, it was more like a sport than a job!”
The chart accompanying this article represents Darby's best look in the airline hiring crystal ball that is available. It should give all those flight students churning away at pilot training some hope.
Is this all etched in stone? No, of course not. Just as nobody can predict where the Dow Jones will peak next week, no human can nail down airline hiring trends and realities with absolute certainty. Darby has given it the best shot that we have, and for that we are grateful.
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