Aircraft accidents are evidence of that risk. And although recent AOPA Air Safety Foundation and National Transportation Safety Board data show the lowest number of accidents in 2004 than in any year since 1938 -- general aviation accidents decreased from 1,741 in 2003 to 1,614 in 2004, and fatal accidents decreased from 352 to 312 -- accidents still occurred.
Managing the inherent risk is a key to flying safely and further reducing the number of accidents. The FAA's Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge defines risk management as "the part of the decision making process which relies on situational awareness, problem recognition, and good judgment to reduce risks associated with each flight." If you're not familiar with the term, you soon will be -- it's making its way into various flight-training resources and even the FAA's practical test standards, which means that applicants for pilot certificates and ratings will be tested on the concept. Aeronautical decision making and risk management are identified as a special emphasis area in the new Sport Pilot Practical Test Standards, giving the concept the same prominence as runway incursion avoidance, controlled flight into terrain, temporary flight restrictions, special-use airspace, and aviation security. They've also been added to the Instrument Rating Practical Test Standards, which require the examiner to evaluate the applicant's risk management skills by presenting scenarios that incorporate as many tasks as possible.
Veteran aviation educators John and Martha King are passionate about the risk management message. The first couple each to hold every category and class of FAA pilot and instructor certificates, they own and operate King Schools in San Diego, California. Over the past 29 years, the business has delivered millions of videotapes, CD-ROMs, and DVDs to pilots in training. And they have retained their enthusiasm for flying, piloting their Dassault Falcon 10 jet wherever they go, swapping captain and copilot duties on each leg.
Experience is a tough teacher
The emphasis in flight training is on physical skills; risk management is not conveyed as successfully, she continued. "The physical skills don't go far enough. To us that's the big weakness of the flight training system."
"It's intellectually dishonest to characterize aviation as entirely safe," John King said. "We as an industry need to do a better job of admitting the risks and managing them. Without admitting the risks there's no reason to seek them out."
Most risk management is taught through stories, he said. Sometimes students take risks and are not uncomfortable -- "maybe they were just lucky" -- or they do get scared and say, "I'm not going to do that anymore."
"An experienced pilot is one who has a long list of things they aren't going to do anymore," he said. "The problem is, experience is a tough teacher -- she gives the test first and the lesson afterwards. Some pilots and their passengers don't survive the test in order to get the lesson."
Systematic approach
"What we have to do is teach pilots a systematic procedure to identify risks that they have not anticipated or experienced, and manage them," John King said, noting that we already follow similar procedures in the maintenance of our aircraft -- an airplane is flown all year, then goes into the shop for its annual inspection. There, a checklist is used to conduct active surveillance, allowing the mechanic to find problems that wouldn't be discovered otherwise. "We want pilots to use a checklist to conduct the same kind of surveillance on their flights," he said.
"The fact that they've identified the risk doesn't mean that they have to throw up their hands and not go," Martha King explained. "They are empowered to modify the flight, if necessary, to make it a more comfortable experience."
Airlines are safer than general aviation, but risk management is more formalized there -- with dispatchers and other professionals involved in making decisions, she noted. "You don't have the resources that an airline pilot does. That's why you need the checklists and the framework."
Hard lesson
| I'M SAFE checklist
Illness -- Do I have any symptoms? |
Why are the Kings so passionate about aviation safety?
"We became born-again pilots after we had an accident," John King explained.
In the 1970s, the Kings were en route to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to teach a ground school course. They were flying VFR on top of an overcast when their Cessna 210's generator failed. But instead of landing immediately or turning back, they decided to proceed VFR using pilotage, figuring there would be enough battery power to navigate an approach at their destination.
"When we turned on the electrical system it was completely dead," John King said. "What we had was a pilot-induced emergency."
They descended into the overcast from 10,000 feet; ice began to form on the airplane, they lost airspeed, and they got to within 100 feet of where they thought the ground was -- although they did not have a current local altimeter setting and, after 3.5 hours of dead reckoning, weren't sure of their exact location. Then they climbed back up through the clouds and picked up more ice.
"Now we're back on top and I'm absolutely panicked. I'd have given anything for it to be Martha's turn to fly the airplane," he recalled.
Darkness was approaching so he descended again. "I wanted to go back up, but Martha said, 'We have to go down.' She said to me, 'Would you rather do it now or in the dark?' " Finally they saw cars on a country road, lowered the landing gear, and landed on a field covered with 18 inches of snow capped with 1.5 inches of ice. "We rolled on that crust of ice about 75 feet and then broke through." The airplane tipped onto its nose, then fell back on its tail; Martha received minor injuries.
"I realized how incredibly dumb supposedly bright people can be," John King said.
An examination of the airplane showed that a single wire had become detached from the generator. "Because we did not take the time to have that single wire replaced, we put at risk everything in the world that was precious to us," he reflected.
CARE checklist
| Use CARE in the air Consequences |
The Kings developed the CARE checklist to manage in-flight risks. Similar to an instrument scan, "it's a way of having an attention scan in the air, so that you consider everything you need to do," John King said. "Flying is dynamic -- the weather changes, the terrain changes, the time of day changes."
"Sometimes it changes the way that you expect it to, and sometimes it doesn't," Martha King added.
"Let's assume you get in the air, level off in cruise, and your groundspeed is considerably lower than you anticipated. The first thing you want to do is look at consequences of reduced groundspeed," John King said.
- You're going to arrive later.
- You'll arrive with less fuel, possibly after dark, with a pilot who is more fatigued.
- External pressure is heightened. Perhaps somebody is waiting for you at the airport. "Now your stress level has increased."
- The wind drives the weather. "If the wind is different than forecast, pressure patterns, the location of fronts, and conditions at your destination probably will differ too."
"When you've thought of all these levels of consequences, you've given yourself some incentive to land short [of your destination] and pick up more fuel," he said.
"In many cases you'll have to do something," Martha King observed.
Circle of alternatives
| DECIDE model Detect the fact that a change has occurred. |
When you take off on a flight, the circle of alternatives is huge. A fresh pilot can fly an airplane full of fuel a long distance in any direction. "As you go along, the pilot is more fatigued and you have less and less fuel. That circle of alternatives gets smaller and smaller and smaller," John King said. "That's why as your flight progresses, it becomes increasingly important to speed up your attention scan."
Because that circle is getting smaller and smaller, the pilot has to work harder and harder to maintain good alternatives. At any point the flight can land, refuel the airplane and refresh the pilot, and reexpand the circle of alternatives.
"That's why on a long trip near the maximum range of our aircraft, we pick a fuel stop near the midpoint. We arrive at the destination with a much larger circle of alternatives."
Don't deny the reality if flight conditions change; just revise your plan. "Deal with things as they really are, not as you planned or hoped they would be."
External pressures aren't part of the flight itself, but they lurk in the background. "They're very often the reason you're making the flight -- and they put time pressures on you," he said. They're also the one risk factor that tends to make you ignore all the other risk factors.
Tips for managing external pressures include:
- Build in extra time.
- Arrive early; unload and refuel the plane.
- Rent a car instead of having someone meet you.
PAVE your way
| PAVE your way to a safe flight Pilot |
Is the pilot current in the aircraft, and in good health? The FAA's I'M SAFE checklist (see p. 48) is a good tool for evaluating the latter.
Is the aircraft capable of what you're asking it to do, and in good condition?
Do airspace, weather, terrain, time of day, and any other environmental factor increase the fight's potential risk?
Think about external pressures and manage them before you take off.
"Always have an overnight bag," John King suggested. "Tell people you're going to land later than you actually plan to arrive."
"Make sure you have cell numbers so you can phone people if you have to divert or stop for fuel," Martha King added. "Don't box yourself into a situation where you have to fly right now, regardless. Don't schedule it so tight that you're willing to risk your life to get there."
For both checklists, the Kings caution pilots about risk factors' cumulative effect. Be wary if you have a marginal item in any single risk category. But if two or more risk categories are marginal, they recommend landing instead of continuing the flight -- or not launching if you're still on the ground.
Training tools
The Kings said they've spent years refining their thinking on risk management so that it can be taught. They believe previous efforts at presenting the subject were ineffective, in part because of the terminology that was used.
Two years ago King Schools introduced a CD-ROM-based Practical Risk Management for Pilots course. Next was Practical Risk Management for Weather, which prompts pilots to establish personal weather minimums; Practical Risk Management for Takeoffs and Landings, just released, applies the same risk management framework to takeoffs and landings.
For example, crosswind components and short runways come into play. A good -- and honest -- assessment of the pilot's skills, as well as airplane's capabilities, is required. "Not all airplanes behave the same," Martha King noted. And the risk factors are still cumulative: a brisk crosswind will combine with slick runway surfaces and high density altitude to further increase risk.
Proactive thinking is the key. "Situational awareness doesn't have this proactive aspect of considering problems before you get into them," John King said. "This concept has not been formalized in flight training. That's what we hope to provide to the industry."
The courses have been well received by pilots, they said. An aviation safety foundation in Alaska bought 400 copies of the Practical Risk Management CD for distribution to pilots. And the Kings said that aviation insurer Avemco, which offers a 5-percent premium credit to customers who complete the training CDs, is seeing a lower loss ratio among pilots who have taken the course.
The Kings have been working with the FAA to write a handbook on risk management for the agency. It will discuss practical application of their risk-management methodology. "The purpose of having a risk management handbook is that it becomes an official FAA document," John King said. As a result, risk management questions can be asked of students during both knowledge and practical tests. Publication of the handbook is expected this summer.
"When you think about it, it's stunning that we don't have a systematic risk management process as a part of the aviation culture. We're hoping to change that, so that pilots will go through a mental checklist before every flight," he said.
"Our goal with the Practical Risk Management series is to give pilots takeaways that are easy to remember and easy to use," Martha King said.
"What we want is to give pilots insight -- to have that light bulb go on," John King added.
Mike Collins is editor of AOPA Flight Training magazine.
Want to know more?
Links to additional resources about the topics discussed in this article are available at AOPA Flight Training Online.
