Pilotage

I’m not the best at prognosticating, as I’m so painfully reminded every time I check on the performance of my investment funds. So, I usually rely on proven visionaries, futurists with a track record, to provide shape and texture to the shimmering mirage that I see when I look down the road ahead.

Burt Rutan is one such experienced visionary. It’s easy to see his many airplane designs, unconventional in configuration and intent, as icons of the future. Whether or not our flying kids will be scooting around the skies in white plastic Rutan airplanes with, say, one reverse-delta-shape wing sprouting from the top of the fuselage—and the other, a boomerang, protruding from the nose—remains to be seen. But if peering into the future means being able to temporarily shake off the conventions of the present, then who better than Burt Rutan to do the peering?

That’s just what Aviation Week & Space Technology asked Rutan to do in a recent issue. Not surprisingly, given his technical genius, he devoted much of his discussion to the technology of the future, in particular the advanced avionics systems that will provide virtual vision and navigational guidance no matter the conditions.

I have a difficult time picturing myself in one of those cockpits, possibly because it bears little resemblance to today’s general aviation environment. At any rate, his essay encouraged me to take a few tentative steps out onto the thin ice of futurespeak to take a look for myself. I saw not one, but three futures, arranged chronologically from the near to the far. Let’s call the near-term future tomorrow—the relatively few years left in my active flying lifetime. The second period covers my children’s flying careers, some 50 to 60 years on out. Finally, shrouded in a gauzy, uncertain fog, there is the far-out future—a double entendre to be sure.

So what does the flying life look like in the next couple of decades? Not much different than today, I’m happy to predict. Ambitious new airplanes and avionics will be introduced and, as new products do, will continually redefine the standard. However, much of today’s general aviation fleet will soldier on into the coming decades to serve the current and coming generation of pilots. I expect that, unless my economic lot in life takes a lucrative leap forward, tomorrow I’ll still be taking my flying adventures in the 36-year-old airplane I operate today.

Occasionally, we’re reminded of how amazing it is that airplanes designed decades ago for an apparently relatively short useful life are still flying. I don’t find that so surprising. When post-World War II light-aircraft designers and manufacturers turned from tubular steel airframe structures covered with fabric to lightweight aluminum alloys, and complete electrical systems and tricycle and retractable landing gear became standard, it transformed the look of general aviation into what we are familiar with today.

All things considered, that "look" works pretty well. My airplane not only has a contemporary appearance (Rutan-like designs aside), but it also delivers a lot of value. I define value as what comes out of the oven when you mix up a tin of acquisition price, speed, utility, cost of operation, upkeep, and general hassle factor, and bake for a year or two. If the ingredients blend well and most of the time the result looks good, smells good, and tastes good, then it must be a pretty good value.

Everyone’s value recipe is different—yours may include a healthy portion of speed with less concern about acquisition price or utility—but the fact is that many of the light aircraft flying today represent a good value to their owners, and will continue to do so into tomorrow.

The great advantage of an airplane over other vehicles, principally automobiles, is that they are true component devices. Each of the major components, including airframe, engine, avionics, interior, and accessories, can be replaced in whole or in part independently of the others. That makes it possible, and easy, to keep an older aircraft reasonably current in terms of technology.

Many of the innovations that have appeared in new aircraft sooner or later find their way into the aftermarket for sale to guys like me and my partner who own an older but still serviceable airplane. These include an efficient new cowl and descent spoilers, tuned engine-induction systems, electronic displays and smart engine monitoring systems, and even interior active noise-reduction systems and modular passenger entertainment centers.

New will always be new, and for those who desire and can afford the freshness and vigor of new, nothing less will do. But as long as useful, technologically savvy new products can be installed on senior-citizen aircraft like the one I fly, those old veterans will continue to enjoy an active and fruitful life.

In fact, I’d be surprised if my college sophomore son isn’t fantasizing about someday assuming ownership of Dad’s airplane. I’m not sure how that would play with my partner and his family, but the point is that my young son does not look at this older airplane in the same way he looks at a 36-year-old car. He sees it as a desirable airplane for today, and for tomorrow when I’m just a (hopefully) fond memory.

More important than the kind of airplane my children will fly, I’m convinced they will enjoy much the same flexibility and freedom to fly that I savor. As long as our society values individual achievement, fairness, and personal freedom, then personal flying will flourish because it speaks to each of those qualities. When they outlaw private ownership of cars, we should start to worry. We have to continually remind the regulatory rascals of those guiding principles, but with a strong voice and smart people we’ve been extraordinarily successful at that task for decades, and there is no reason to think that the performance won’t continue.

When I look at my time remaining, and what my children will inherit and shape, I see no fundamental changes coming in general aviation as we know it. The far-off future is a different story. Technology has the potential to put personal flying within the reach of tens of millions more people than are now involved. The questions are: Would they be interested? and Could they handle it? I’m not sure about the answer to the first question. Studies point to a pilot personality profile, yet I’m sure the same thing was said about drivers in the early days of the automobile. If a personal airplane were as indispensable as a car, everyone would be flying.

I don’t doubt the general public’s ability to control an airplane. We see daily that almost everyone has the basic mental and motor skills to drive very fast, very close to many other cars, and often in very difficult circumstances, including poor weather and confusing routing. Flying looks simple in comparison.

I leave it up to Burt Rutan to burn off the fog obscuring the far-off future. I’m happy looking ahead to see what tomorrow brings.